Wednesday, June 14, 2006

The Pandemic TabEx (Part 1)

An interesting little exercise, that.

Just got out of the Pueblo City-County Health Department’s (PCCHD) Table Exercise for city and county agencies to discuss and plan for the advent of a human form of bird flu.

Don’t panic! PREPARE!

That’s the first and foremost message that I think came out of the meeting. And that’s to everyone.

The chance of bird flu going ‘ballistic’ IS there. No one has a good idea of how likely it is to happen, but if it does happen the most important aspect of surviving it is to BE PREPARED. And by that I, and everyone I heard at the exercise, mean to have the essentials of life readily on hand the MOMENT you hear it has gone ballistic.  Why do I say that? Well, because it is the general consensus of the attendees that the various government and other agencies we’ve come to rely on are likely to be overwhelmed by the work effort necessary to do their most basic jobs.

Consider what the effect would be on a hospital if 30% or more of their staff—doctors, nurses, maintenance, clerks—were NOT available because they were sick with the flu themselves. Then again there are the police and fire departments. At this staffing level, they are not going to be as ready to help you as they are right now, when they have their normal work force. Not only that, but consider such everyday activities as grocery and drug stores. These sorts of places might become great places to become infected with the flu yourself, with all the people that pass through them and their clerks handling money that could have been handled by people carrying the bug and passing that money to you. Or consider the people standing in line with you coughing and sneezing.

It gives you pause to consider how frequently you’d want to go to such a place.

So, what are these essentials for life? And how do you prepare yourself and your family to have them?

Please excuse me while I drop back into a prior life experience mode; military logistician, if you will.

Looking at them from this perspective, it’s pretty easy to classify them in terms of the Army’s classes of supply. And here they are:

Class I (Subsistence): Better known as FOOD.

Right now, the PCCHD figures that in the first wave of such a pandemic, and they anticipate several such waves, we’ll need at least 3 weeks supply of food on-hand. That means IN YOUR POSSESSION.

How much do you think you’ll need? Well, for planning purposes, I suggest using a simple formula. Figure on 1 quart of food and 1 gallon of drinking water per person per day.

Considering that they figure there will be several waves of the bug passing through the community, I’d recommend having 3 months of food. Not just 3 weeks.

A good plan would likely include a good supply of rice, olive oil and canned meats such as tuna or SPAM. Canned whole-meal soups, with meat and veggies would be good too.

I’d also recommend you plan on having your own supply of drinking water. This might seem like a lot of water. You might think it impossible to store that much water. But consider THIS. A king-sized water bed mattress can hold a couple hundred gallons. You could get a couple of these ‘containers’ and store them in your garage or attic or under a bed. Then, if the situation arose, you could pull them out and fill them up.

To augment this supply, a couple of 32-gallon plastic trash cans could catch rain water from your down spouts.

I’m sure some clever people could come up with some other means of storing water.

To keep it clean and safe to drink or use in food preparation, get some good old fashioned chlorine bleach. A few drops in a gallon of water would sanitize that gallon for use. But not immediately. Wait several hours for the chlorine to kill any germs in the water before drinking it. Boiling for 30 minutes is another technique to sterilize water. But if there is no electricity, that could be difficult.

Class II (Equipment): This is personal equipment. Things like work-belts, special shoes and boots, gloves, eye protection, protective masks. If you need such. Certainly a good tool belt could come in very useful. Also the protective masks in this instance.

As a bare minimum, protective masks would be a good idea. If you have to go out and make contact with people, a more effective protective mask with replaceable filters would be worth considering. They are not too expensive. You can get something like the masks painters use to keep from inhaling toxic fumes. And don’t forget to get replacement filter elements.

Class III (Fuel): I’m not certain that anyone is really going to want to drive all that much in public. But having 10 gallons of gasoline could be useful in an emergency.

But not only gasoline. Consider what to do in the event that the electricity fails. Having a few kerosene lamps would certainly brighten your life. So 5-10 gallons of kerosene would be useful too.

Coleman fuel for their famous camp stoves would be useful to have too. Provided you had the forethought to prepare yourself by having one of those.

Personally, I prefer a small habachi grill. You know, those cute little Japanese charcoal burners that hold a few briquettes. So a couple of bags of charcoal briquettes too.

Class IV (Clothing): Not too much of a worry here. At least for most people. We all have clothes. But what if an important article of clothing is ruined or lost. Got a spare?

Class V (Ammunition): A touchy subject. But if the police aren’t there to help you in an emergency, e.g., a house invasion by someone determined to get your food and/or your house, it would be useful to defend yourself and your family.

Class VI (Personal Demand): Think personal hygiene here; toothpaste, soap, shampoo, toilet paper [Note: No one wants their toilet plugged because they were using newspaper. The plumbers are likely not to come at your beck and call.] This also includes feminine hygiene supplies.

Class VII (Major End Items): We’re talking about major items here. Durable items, such as washing machines, household appliances, cars, motorcycles, bicycles, etc., etc., etc. As with clothing, this should not be much of a problem. But if you think you’re going to need something that you don’t already have, I’d recommend you get it NOW.

Class VIII (Medical): This is going to be a real issue.

Obviously anyone of us can get a first aid kit. Or improve our current first aid stocks.

It would also be a good idea to stock in regular off-the-shelf medicines; aspirin, ibuprofen, Alka-Seltzer, Pepto-Bismol, vitamins, extra bandaides and some real bandages and gauze and medical adhesive tape, neosporin, rubbing alcohol (for disinfection), Vaseline, etc., etc.

Need perscription medications? If you can stock-pile them that would be best. However, some medications do not have a long shelf-life. Or there may be some issues regarding security of medications. Procedures to deal with such circumstances need to be worked out yet.

Class IX (Repair Parts): If you’ve got important equipment that might break down and you could repair yourself, get the necessary parts that you think will most likely break on you. This also includes batteries for flashlights.

Light bulbs for flashlights and house lamps. Several varieties of glue. Not just Elmer’s, but things like Super Shoe Goo. I’ve found it VERY useful in a number of different ways. Duct tape would be good to have too.

Class X (Civil Support): Here, we’re talking about the regular sorts of tools that you might find around any house; shovels, axes, picks, rakes, buckets. And have a decent toolkit to use around the house as well.

Additionally, make sure you have several large all-around fire extinguishers of the ABC type. If a fire starts, the fire department might not be able to help you save your home.

Battery powered smoke alarms should also be set up in just about every room of the house. If you detect the fire soon enough, you can likely put it out before it gets completely out of your control.

All of these things you can get NOW at your convenience. Without having to deal with a mob scene at some store once the flu goes ballistic. And that’s what you’d likely encounter at the stores if you wait too long.

I’ll have more thoughts on preparation for the arrival of a ballistic form of bird flu in the future. So stay tuned…..

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